![]() ![]() This does demonstrate that the game has changed, and that we need to be rethinking our approach to managing our way out of the pandemic. Other factors though are far more hopeful – we are seeing a very significant decoupling between case rates, hospital and ICU admissions and in particular death rates. In the UK this has almost certainly been facilitated by both the general relaxation in lockdown and by events such as the G7 Summit and the Euro 2020 competition. We think that speaks for itself.Ĭontinue reading How accurate are our forecasts? → analytics Artificial Intelligence case numbers covid-19 forecasting hindcasting pandemic prediction UKĪs of 11 May, our Covid-19 forecasting system started consistently predicting a coming rise in cases for the UK, driven largely (as it turns out) by the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. Our header image shows the current forecast for the UK, overlaid with our hindcast for our forecast from 1 June. We call those Actionable forecasts, in that they’ve proven accurate enough to confidently have taken policy decisions against. To validate the forecasts, we measure their daily predictions against what subsequently transpired – these can be displayed in our dashboard by clicking the grey tabs below each date in the horizontal date picker at the bottom.įor that period then, we have forty four 28-day hindcasts, plus the current forecast, from 24 June (today being the 30th – the lag is down to the rolling evolution of data quality for recent days).įor the UK, on thirty six of those forty four days, our forecasts generated a trajectory that closely matches the subsequently recorded change in case numbers, by which we mean effectively tracked the actual case numbers for at least two weeks into the 28-day forecast. ![]() We made that change as we improved our algorithms, validated our earlier forecasts and, of course, as our system has had more historical data to work with, it’s got somewhat better at its job. ![]() Taking the current rise in infections as an example, our analytic system has, consistently been able to forecast changes in the Covid-19 pandemic across the UK – we started with 14-day forecasts and have now pushed those out to 28 days. ![]() Continue reading Third Wave Rising → analytics Artificial Intelligence big data covid-19 pandemic policy prediction Scotland UK vaccination Given little restriction on movement, we believe that these centres of infection are in the process of seeding a ripple of infection across the rest of the country. The current wave is so far unevenly distributed, with urban centres showing the biggest rises, in many cases well above the January peak with, as previously noted, an apparent strong association with those areas most engaged in the Euro 2020 competition. Looking at the behaviour of Chris Whitty’s eyebrows during government briefings, we suspect that neither is he. With the UK’s rolling weekly case rate now at 238/100k population, up 60% on a week ago, and 40% of the way to the January national peak, we are not reassured. With that wave now fully established, we’re looking again at our forecasts, the core data and our dynamic analyses of the pandemic, especially given the latest UK government policy. We’ve already shown that our forecasting system has been effective in providing advance warning of the current Third (or Fourth, depending on how you’re counting) wave of Covid-19 cases. ![]()
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